Robert J. Shiller
Vereinigte Staaten · Akademiker · Geboren 1946 · Alter 80
Robert J. Shiller wird in 52 Sprachen etwa 202 Mal am Tag gelesen.
Ein typischer Tag, 30 Tage bis 16. September 2026
Der mittlere Tag der gezählten Tage, damit eine Nachrichtenwoche ihn nicht verschieben kann. Die Linie darunter zeigt die letzten 60 Tage, ein Punkt pro Tag.
Stimmt etwas nicht?Robert James Shiller (* 29. März 1946 in Detroit) ist ein US-amerikanischer Ökonom und Professor für Wirtschaftswissenschaften an der Yale University. Er wurde 2013 - gemeinsam mit Lars Peter Hansen und Eugene Fama - mit dem Alfred-Nobel-Gedächtnispreis für Wirtschaftswissenschaften ausgezeichnet.
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Fotos 4
Nobel Memorial Prize Laureate Robert J. Shiller during press conference in Stockholm, December 2013![Robert Shiller's plot of the S&P Composite Real Price Index, Earnings, Dividends, and Interest Rates, from Irrational Exuberance, 2d ed.[19] In the preface to this edition, Shiller warns that "[t]he stock market has not come down to historical levels: the price-earnings ratio as I define it in this book is still, at this writing [2005], in the mid‑20s, far higher than the historical average. ... People still place too much confidence in the markets and have too strong a belief that paying attention to the gyrations in their investments will someday make them rich, and so they do not make conservative preparations for possible bad outcomes."](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6f/IE_Real_SandP_Prices%2C_Earnings%2C_and_Dividends_1871-2006.png/500px-IE_Real_SandP_Prices%2C_Earnings%2C_and_Dividends_1871-2006.png)
Robert Shiller's plot of the S&P Composite Real Price Index, Earnings, Dividends, and Interest Rates, from Irrational Exuberance, 2d ed.[19] In the preface to this edition, Shiller warns that "[t]he stock market has not come down to historical levels: the price-earnings ratio as I define it in this book is still, at this writing [2005], in the mid‑20s, far higher than the historical average. ... People still place too much confidence in the markets and have too strong a belief that paying attention to the gyrations in their investments will someday make them rich, and so they do not make conservative preparations for possible bad outcomes."![Price-earnings ratios as a predictor of twenty-year returns based on the plot by Robert Shiller (Figure 10.1,[19][20]). The horizontal axis shows the Cyclically adjusted Price-Earnings (CAPE) ratio of the S&P Composite Stock Price Index as computed in Irrational Exuberance (inflation adjusted price divided by the prior ten-year mean of inflation-adjusted earnings). The vertical axis shows the geometric average real annual return on investing in the S&P Composite Stock Price Index, reinvesting dividends, and selling twenty years later. Data from different twenty-year periods is color-coded as shown in the key. See also ten-year returns. Shiller states that this plot "confirms that long-term investors - investors who commit their money to an investment for ten full years - did do well when prices were low relative to earnings at the beginning of the ten years. Long-term investors would be well advised, individually, to lower their exposure to the stock market when it is high, as it has been recently, and get into the market when it is low."[19]](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/77/Price-Earnings_Ratios_as_a_Predictor_of_Twenty-Year_Returns_%28Shiller_Data%29.png/500px-Price-Earnings_Ratios_as_a_Predictor_of_Twenty-Year_Returns_%28Shiller_Data%29.png)
Price-earnings ratios as a predictor of twenty-year returns based on the plot by Robert Shiller (Figure 10.1,[19][20]). The horizontal axis shows the Cyclically adjusted Price-Earnings (CAPE) ratio of the S&P Composite Stock Price Index as computed in Irrational Exuberance (inflation adjusted price divided by the prior ten-year mean of inflation-adjusted earnings). The vertical axis shows the geometric average real annual return on investing in the S&P Composite Stock Price Index, reinvesting dividends, and selling twenty years later. Data from different twenty-year periods is color-coded as shown in the key. See also ten-year returns. Shiller states that this plot "confirms that long-term investors - investors who commit their money to an investment for ten full years - did do well when prices were low relative to earnings at the beginning of the ten years. Long-term investors would be well advised, individually, to lower their exposure to the stock market when it is high, as it has been recently, and get into the market when it is low."[19]In ihren eigenen Worten 3
, To understand the economy then is to comprehend how it is driven by the animal spirits.
I was reminded of how much I had misjudged the potential the profession would see in the time series rational expectations models.
This [covariance] is something that is not in the habit of thinking of most amateur investors.
Auszeichnungen
Zur Person
Gemeinsamkeiten mit Robert
Eugene FamaBeide ausgezeichnet mit Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics
Leonid HurwiczBeide ausgezeichnet mit Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel
Finn E. KydlandBeide ausgezeichnet mit Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel
Raghuram RajanBeide ausgezeichnet mit Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial EconomicsMichael Dean WoodfordBeide ausgezeichnet mit Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics
Eric MaskinBeide ausgezeichnet mit Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred NobelFame.am misst Signale öffentlicher Sichtbarkeit. Es misst nicht den Wert eines Menschen, Talent, Moral oder Glaubwürdigkeit.